The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. Something went wrong, please try again later. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. The End of History and the Last Man. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. Nuh still something wrong. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. (including Australia). Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. But is it? Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. [5] Andrew Browne. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . Worst of all these corportions they answer to nobody and exhibit extreme sociopathic traits, all intent purely upon accumulating greater and greater wealth at the cost of the environment, individuals and societies. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' Whoops that cant be right. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. There ya go. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. WILD: An Australian politician has made a bizarre claim about a small airstrip in the desert, IMPORTANT: The video pointed out the airstrip's proximity to the port of Cape Preston. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. particularly June Bullivant. Just buy the bastards and their debt out. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. War and the arming for war is the defining rationale behind the (dominant) Western Economies. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. That sounds frightening!!! Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. Maybe try deceptive lying capitalist pigs. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. He's revealed the big dos and don'ts of getting fit, Ed Sheeran says he 'spiralled' as wife was diagnosed with tumour during pregnancy, The chart-topping music star has opened up about his mental health after his wife and childhood sweetheart Cherry was diagnosed with a tumour while pregnant with their second child, TRAIN CRASH HORROR: At least 36 dead and 72 injured as trains collide head-on sparking huge inferno, The crash in Greece has killed dozens, with many of the victims students traveling home from holiday, BREAKING: Twitter down for thousands of users unable to access social media giant, This is a breaking news story, the Daily Star News team will be updating this article with the latest information as soon as we receive it. I find this piece troubling. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. I must admit I skimmed this piece. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. And that was when I was a child !! Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. Jacqui Lambie!! April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. [8] Gabriel Kolko. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Beyond incompetence and corruption Untroubled by the burdens of either wit or intelligence the embaldened tubermensch who, for now, leads the, Alan Tudge is leaving Parliament. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. Subscribe to ADM Premium. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. After all its our back yard. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. War is a fools game and China knows it. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. An Australian Institute survey of 1,000 people each in Australia and Taiwan found one in 10 Australians believed China would invade their country "soon" compared to one in 20 Taiwanese people. I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. What am I missing? Signed sealed and yet to deliver. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills Try again. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! 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